The (not quite) July Crisis

(The (not quite) July Crisis)

German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, the "Iron Chancellor," as he was called, was known as the Circus Rider of Europe. He most responsible for the founding of the German Empire. he was able to accomplish this by some brilliant diplomacy that secured Germany's flanks by treaties like the Three Emperors League or the Reissuance Treaty. Creating the German Empire, however, in essence, closed a circuit. So, when the Iron Chancellor was removed from Office by Kaiser Wilhelm in 1890, Bismarck's carefully crafted Balance of Power was left in less capable hand.

On June 28th, 1914, in the Bosnia town of Sarajevo, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the Heir to the Austro-Hungarian Throne, was assassinated, along with his wife, Sophie. What followed were a series of diplomatic maneuvers and military mobilizations that, in that intense summer environment, gradually drove the Nations of Europe to "The Guns of August."

This June 9th, the situation in 1914 that led to events beginning the First World War, are repeating themselves. One can begin with some good news that the Israel Defense Force was able to secure four hostages that had been held by Hamas for over eight months. It is being  reported that some American assets were employed in the recovery. Now, Secretary of State Blinken is heading back to the region to press for another cease fire.

While this is a triumph for Israeli arms, in front of the White House, thousands are demonstrating in support of the Palestinian terror group. The Statue of Andrew Jackson in Lafayette Park has been defaced, red handprints at various spots on the site. That is quite the contrast and why the Secretary of State visit is so ill advised. The United States has ceased to be an influence in Israeli policy, any aid in the hostage recovery notwithstanding.

Israel is one thing, Ukraine is quite the other. In the same diplomatic mis-steps that would have made Bismarck aghast, in the recent D-Day celebrations, President Biden, who apologized to Ukrainian President Zelenski on the delay in delivering weapons to the Ukranian effort. Biden blames Republicans. But it was French President Macron that actually suggested that NATO troops could be deployed to the Ukrainian Theater. That will have the effect of introducing Western troops in direct contact with Russian forces.

As that would not be sufficiently adverse, But it is a reflection of the lack of diplomatic skill that only encourages conflict, not cause its abatement. And, one must also say that the diplomatic failures in 1914 were all but replicated in the Peace Conferences of 1918-1919, leading to the Versailles Treaty. In a remarkable comparison, President Woodrow Wilson with his own infirmities, not too removed from the current state of President Biden. The American President was regularly outwitted by his British and French counterparts, Britain's David Lloyd George and French Georges Clemenceau, the "Tiger."

There is one more comparison between then and now. Wilson was an amateur, just like Biden and the situation in the world is largely his fault. Like Lloyd George and Clemenceau, so Putin and Xi now. A Bismarck would have been able to keep the peace. Then again, he was not one to worry over climate change.