Up Your (expletive deleted). . .

(Up Your (expletive deleted). . .)

Please excuse the "expletive," but one can probably surmise the word. Such foul language is not at random. On November 19th, 1942, the Soviets launched Operation URANUS. That was the name of the strategic offensive that, during the Battle of Stalingrad, encircled the German Sixth Army investing the ruined city on the Volga. The so-called "Stalingrad Pocket" was for all intents and purposes sealed by November 24 and the opportunity for an intact withdrawal of Sixth Amy, as well as elements of the Fourth Panzer Army. A relief army was organized and marched to relieve the embattled garrison but it was repulsed. Over the next few months, in Operation KOTSO (ring) some seven whole Soviet armies gradually compressed the Stalingrad Pocket till what was left of the once vaunted Sixth and Fourth Panzer Armies surrounded in the first part of the following February.

URANUS was not the only strategic operation. In the north, there was Operation MARS, where what URANUS did in the south at Stalingrad, so MARS' aim was the destruction of the German Ninth Army. That attack failed and cost the Red Army thousands in both personnel and armor. The Red Army under the iron grip of Stalin and Marshal Zhukov, among others, knew that in time, the initiative would pass and from there, all roads would lead to Berlin. That is what happened with the German defeat at Kursk.

Today, and remarkably close to the same battlefields, there is a marked lack of quality between the Red Aremy Marshals of old and Russian generals in the Ukrainian theater now. The situation has become sufficiently dire for Russian forces, who are in the process of evacuating Kherson. But how bad does the situation have to be for "negotiations" to begin to be seriously discussed ?

What are the consequences of defeat ? What will the consequences be for Vladimir Putin now that Russian efforts have not succeeded ? To be sure, Putin is no Stalin and his survival could increasingly be called into question. Might there be a face-saving option for Russia to extract from the Ukraine ? If there is a cessation of hostilities, Ukrainian President Zelenski has ten conditions for the cease fire to hold but a pre-requisite would be the evacuation of all Russian assets from in country, including the Crimea. 

Zelenski has outlined a 10-step "peace formula" which he urged Western leaders Saturday to help implement to permanently end the war. The strategy not only calls on Russia to withdraw all troops from Ukraine and for a tribunal to address war crimes, but lists nuclear, food and energy security as chief items of importance. Zelenski’s list also includes environment initiatives to restore destroyed lands and forestry, a prisoner swap, a return of those forcibly deported and a post-war security plan to prevent another attack from Russia."These are challenges which should be overcome for the sake of security of Ukraine, Europe and the world. This is the Peace Formula for the world," he said.

One can also see this as an "operational pause." It has also been Zelenski's admonition that the Russians could use this pause to partially re-construct its forces. That is as an equally likely scenario as anything. So, things have flipped. On the anniversary of URANUS, it is now the Russians who are marking defeat.