Shadows Of Mukden. . .

(Shadows Of Mukden. . .)

The Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905 was fought between Imperial Russa and Japan in the Chinese province of Manchuria, specifically on the Laodong Peninsula and its anchorage at Port Arthur at Laodong's southern tip. The War at the outset went badly for the Russians, its Far Eastern naval assets largely annihilated and the corresponding land campaign also went badly for the Tsar's armies who were largely led by incompetent hangers-on whose only qualification was loyalty to Nicholas II. In the end, Port Arthur fell, and the Russians incurred defeat after defeat. Finally, after a series of battles, the Japanese forced the Russians to retreat all the way, eventually reaching Mukden, Manchuria's Capitol at the time. The Russians lost again, but, by this point, the Japanese were also exhausted. So, while the Russians lost virtually every land and sea battle in the Russo-Japanese War, with the completion of the Trans-Siberian Railroad, Moscow could still funnel troops into theater, whereas Japan could not. Both sides agreed to some mutual concessions and the War was concluded with the Treaty of Portsmouth (New Hampshire), negotiated by then President Theodore Roosevelt.

A similar situation is taking place today only the roles of Russia-Japan are reversed to some extent. This time, the role of the Japanese is being by aggressive Ukrainians and the other would be the severely attritted Russians. Now, with the continued benefits of Western aid, including the introduction of modern armor, the Ukrainian "cause" could be sustained for a longer period.

While the Japanese were ostensibly victorious, at Mukden and probably in the War as a whole, there was never the defeat of the Russian will to fight. As long as that will is maintained, as long as President Putin wants to fight, he will be feeding forces in country because his reserves will prove more sustainable. It will be Western patience that will be exhausted well before that.

Like the Russo-Japanese War, this Russo-Ukrainian War has an expiration date. It will not only be cumulative losses in men and matériel, for both sides, but the in-evitable erosion of will, for both sides. Unlike Vietnam or for that matter, Afghanistan, however, one way or another, this conflict will be brought to an end. It has to be because the alternatives are un-thinkable.