Familiar Territory

(Familiar Territory)

Last month was the anniversary of the signing of the 1973 Paris Peace Accords that ended American involvement in Vietnam. Only Afghanistan was a longer conflict and both ended in American failures. Neither result was inevitable, however. Vietnam had been allowed to persist because there was never the political will, starting in the Kennedy and ending with the Nixon, with the escalation in Southeast Asia under Lyndon Johnson.


Had there been decisive leadership in Washington, the Vietnam War could have been concluded in 1965 but the danger of Soviet intervention always burned the mid-night at the White House, the National Security Council and the Pentagon. Half measures in the conflict were deemed adequate but that ensured that the "mission" was never fully defined and no one could describe what "victory" would look like.


It had been the same situation in Afghanistan. In ways, it was a worse debacle than Vietnam. Going back to Eisenhower, Communist infiltration of the region proved an intractable problem. Afghanistan, however, was abandoned on the whim of President Biden who wanted U.S. forces gone from the area. In the process, Bagram Air Base was evacuated and some $80+ billion of American equipment had been left behind.


Now, President Biden wants to support the Ukraine but to what end and to what extent ? If Soviet involvement was the concern in Vietnam, Biden's issue is not to aggravate President Putin and while he can give moral support to Kiev, he is not one to give 100%. There is broad opinion that Ukraine can prevail over the Russians and expel then from their territory if only the means were provided.


President Biden will not be the one to save the Ukraine. Armor here and perhaps artillery there but no decisive air power, nothing that would seriously inconvenience Moscow. At the moment, a state of strategic equilibrium is being attained and if both sides cannot maneuver, that would be the opportunity for negotiations to commence. Only, make sure the President is not present.

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