Back IIn The Day,. . .

(Back In The Day,. . .)

It has previously been the argument all world events in the 20th Century can be traced to the two bullets that Serb radical, Gavrilo Princip discharged into Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the Heir of the Austro-Hungarian Throne, the event that precipitated the onset of the First World War. That sentiment has since been amended to look at an earlier event that had as much an effect in fostering the initiation of hostilities in 1914 as Princip's bullets. The reason that an assassination in Sarajevo expanded into the "war to end all wars" was the mobilization of Russia, to come to Serbia's age and then the dominos fell. What was Moscow's motivation to intervene in such a manner ? 

In the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905, Russia was embarrassed by the Japanese. They lost the outpost of Port Arthur and Russian armies were progressively driven north till they were expelled from the Lao-dong Peninsula. The War was ended when both sides were exhausted though Russia could still feed troops vie the Trans-Siberian Railway. The War chastened Russia. It mobilized in 1914 in the attempt to re-gain its reputation. And, by 1917, not only had it not taken its reputation back but the Tsar was forced to abdicate in February (March) and the Bolshevik's seized power the following October.

In some ways, Vladimir Putin of 2023 is like Nicholas II from 1917. The Ukraine today is like the Japanese had been in 1904. In both cases, Russia under-estimated its opponents. Japan had just emerged from the Meiji Restoration when its own territorial ambitions in Qing China brought conflict with that of Russia. For its part, Ukraine was thought to be corrupt with a special relationship with the Bidan family, specifically son Hunter and his board membership with gas company Burisma.

Has Putin's position become threatened because of a lack of progress on the ground ? Moscow has bene expending blood and treasure in a conflict that has no end in sight. There has been a shuffling of senior commanders, some were even casualties. That being said, if not Putin, then whom ? And would any new personality inside the Kremlin be able to manage the conflict to a conclusion ? A question for the day.