Imponderables. . .

(Imponderables. . .)

In warfare, there is always some quality that cannot be identified before events evolve. Today is June 4th, and in 1942, was the date for the Battle of Midway, The Battle is generally considered the turning point in the Pacific War, Midway, a two-island atoll about a thousand miles northwest of Pearl Harbor, was a key to a broader Japanese Plan, formulated by Combined Fleet Commander, Isoroku Yamamoto himself. The plan was to stage an attack on the American outpost in the hope that the remaining U.S. carriers would be forced to respond and sail into Yamamoto's trap.

Then, an imponderable element emerged. Unbeknownst to the Japanese, the American cryptologists had broken "Purple," the highest level Japanese diplomatic cypher, as well as "JN-25, " Yamamoto's staff level code. The Americans could read Yamamoto's plan and take steps to combat Japanese intentions. So, on the morning of June 4th, 1942, while the Japanese carrier force did bomb the atoll, decided that another strike was necessary but then a late reconnaissance found that the American carriers were not sortieing from Pearl Harbor but were instead on station at a position northeast of Midway and, once the Japanese had been identified, the Americans launched. Attacks by torpedo bombers were all but wiped out without scoring any hits on Japanese ships but the attacks had the effect of drawing down Japanese fighter cover so that about 1015 hours squadrons of dive bombers made their own attacks and within a matter of minutes, three of the four Japanese carriers were on fire. The fourth was sunk later on that evening.

On paper, Yamamoto had every advantage. He had more ships, he had four carriers to the American three. He was also sailing the world's biggest battleship, mounted with 18.1" main battery, the largest rifles ever placed on a warship. But, and this can afflict every commander throughout, not just Yamamoto. Not every contingency can be anticipated and having the top level cyphers compromised by some people in a room at Pearl Harbor and a bank of cryptologic machines.

Going forward, events like this, the war in Ukraine, the relations with China, the 2024 Election are all potential events with its own set of imponderables. In other words, no one knows what they don't know.