Mass Movements

(Mass Movements)

It can be remarkable how history can re-peat itself. Today is July 5th and, aside of being the birthday of Huey Lewis, it is only slightly less known as the start date for the Battle of Kursk. In 1943, this climatic class of German and Soviet arms, the largest tank battle in history where thousand of machines lost, took place just east of the current Ukrainian theater. In fact, Kursk itself and the town of Belgorod to the south have been coming under artillery fire, though no casualties have been reported.

If the war is being spread to the Kursk Oblast (district), what is that stating about facts on the ground ? While there has been no grand re-occupation of territory, Ukrainian actions is continuing to attrit the still larger Russian army, and, taking experience from 1943, where the Soviet position was organized as a defense in depth. Layers of mine fields, kill zones, and air superiority, the German panzers were channeled against these strong points and were worn down well before the strategic depths.

So-called "expert" opinion is proving cautiously optimistic regarding Ukraine chances. That is assuming continued support from the West but also the more definite commitment. That means the introduction of arms and support and air power. A factor in the Germans not prevailing at Kursk was Soviet air superiority. No offensive can prevail without control of the air and Ukrainian assets are questionable at best. Recent acquisitions of the F-16 have been made and in the context in question, the Fighting Falcon is an effective air to ground platform but what the kill ratio against Russian fighters is unknown.

It continues to be the opinion of these pages is that the preferable outcome is termination rather than escalation. But the Ukrainians will fight as long as the capacity exists to do so. The fighting will continue, in other words. But the situation has changed with the Wagner "coup" attempt and possible dissention in Russian ranks. Ukraine forces are being elevated as there is a corresponding diminishing in Russian. The 1943 Battle of Kursk ended the German ability to conduct mass movements inside the Soviet Union. For the time being, the "war of movement" is being waged by the Ukrainians