Bad Advice ?

(Bad Advice ?)

How many military operations have mis-fired over the years because of a delay ? Gallipoli, Anzio Kursk to name a few. Because time was used to move assets into position, because logistic support needs to be concentrated. Perhaps more importantly. however is the will. While an intensive bombardment campaign has decimated Gaza infrastructure. But F-15 strikes, as impressive as they can be, do not hold ground. They can kill Hamas fighters and have done so to the tune of several thousand, but they cannot occupy a city block and search for hostages. That will need to be done retail, hand to hand.

The IDF invasion of Gaza is imminent and it has been imminent for the past week or so. One is seeing pictures of Merkava tanks in assembly formation for the past several days and while armored fighting is not necessarily conducive to urban warfare, those 120mm main guns with armor piercing or high explosive rounds can level a building and collapse it on anybody inside. All that is required is the go order. But President Biden has asked "not yet."

The reaction of Biden to a full on ground assault by Israel has always been problematic. The more kinetic the operation in Gaza the more likely an escalation from Iran. The Islamic Republic has been an albatross for the Biden Administration since day one. Now that Tehran is mis-behaving and a normal set of reactions, sanctions, prohibitions on the sale of oil and so on are apparently not being considered.

The excuse given is that an all-out assault would prejudice surviving hostages, some two hundred or so. It has been considered that hostage recovery is also problematic and that the main objective of reducing Hamas could be compromised. But that also leaves the potential of Hezbollah action in the north. Israel's security imperative, however, has to be constructed independent of what feelings might be in the White House.

However, it has been this White House and the policies of the Biden Administration that have been responsible for the crisis, in Israel and indeed the Ukraine. Biden's weakness has been encouraging the Peoples' Republic of China to move against the Republic of China. It is like Biden has loaded bases of global crises and waiting for someone to hit the Grand Slam.

Diplomacy can never achieve what cannot be taken and held on the battlefield and the Israeli Defense Force has been active in battlefield preparation. In its previous pre-emptive actions in 1967, Israel made the point to attack early and place its opponents at a dis-advantage. Eventually, that is what will be executed. Success, however, will be increasingly dependent on when the offensive can start. President Biden will just have to watch.