Issue In Doubt ?

(Issue In Doubt ?)

Here is the tally. Two Carrier Battlegroups (Eisenhower and Ford) have been deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean. A Marine Expeditionary Unit is being re-deployed to the Red Sea region. And President Biden will be in Jerusalem tomorrow. And, as of yet, the main IDF push into Gaza has yet to be ordered.

Now, all these American assets cannot be just for show and in the event of an Hezbollah escalation from Lebanon, the two carriers and their support ships should be able to come to Israel's aid. A least that is a supposed deterrent value but that will be of no value unless the President actually gives the order.

He probably won't. His main concern has always been humanitarian and dismissive of Israeli's military imperatives. To that end, there are trucks being readied in Egypt with supplies that will cross into Gaza and deal with a growing refugee crisis. This column if it rolls will role to the benefit of Hamas and would contravene Israel's efforts to destroy the terror groups.

The President's trip to Jerusalem therefore makes as much sense as a meeting with Premier Xi Jinping and his presence in Israel will only confuse the issue. Biden will not be able to prevent any further escalation from Hezbollah and will not prevent any Iranian intervention, if it comes. What Biden can do, is when the war expands is to support the Jewish state. That would go without saying.

More concretely, the President might want a stinger stance on Iran. The Islamic Republic has been given so many carrots from the Biden Administration that it is like feeding a rabbit. A stick might be in order at this point. Iran bankrolls both Hamas and Hezbollah. It has been the arms supplier to both factions. And, because the Administration has been very accommodating to date, it is no surprise that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is now re-considering its relationship to Israel.

Biden should now make clear to Iran that behavior has consequences. It can bring the regime under sanctions or restore the ones that had been in place under the Trump years. However, Biden can't keep things stable with Iran without alienating Israel. That should not be a difficult decision. Is Biden support for Jerusalem only contingent if he could keep Iran neutral ?

The President knows his limitations when it comes to foreign policy and he would not be capable if a wider conflict erupted. He has assets in theater but the question is does he have the will to employ them ? For the first time since he has been in Office, President Joe Biden will need to make a decision.