Chinese New Years

(Chinese New Years)

It is a fact of life that more Chinese can speak English than English can speak Chinese. In fact, most Americans can only speak what they see on a placemat in any Chinese restaurant. One usually recalls that the mat is ringed by the twelve "animals;." This time it is the Year of the Dragon and it begins on February 10th.


This being a "Year of the Dragon" is appropriate as Chinese Premier Xin Jinping has declared that the Peoples' Republic will be made whole when Taiwan is forced to re-join the Mainland. It was no accident that Beijing is signaling its intentions so blatantly. The Year of the Dragon could be the year that Xi fulfills the promise of Re-unification because he is confident that the United States, despite the statements from President Biden, who has yet to decide how to handle Iran, is unlikely to intervene in a cross Taiwan Strait invasion.


Chinese tea can be some of the more favorable in the world and when has tea, one has tea leaves. The Premier has been reading his leaves and realizes that 2024 could be the last opportunity to move against Taiwan. Looking at the American political scene, President Biden might not be in the White House for much longer. And, if next year it is again Donald Trump, any chance that the Peoples' Republic of China will join the Republic of China will become more problematic.


However, Xi Jinping has his own domestic audience as well. The Chinese politburo is like the old Soviet politburo. The members are constantly vying for position and while Xi Jinping is leading the strongest faction, his position is not above reproach. If he could re-join Taiwan back to the Mainland, that would enhance his standing.


By the same token, if 2025 comes, Taiwan is not re-joined and Donald Trump is President again, Bejing and Xi Jinping specifically will not only have to deal with not having Taiwan back in the fold but also the new tariffs and trade restrictions that Donald Trump is promising to (re)-impose.

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