Seizing Opportunities

(Seizing Opportunities)

Order can be brought from chaos. The southern border is in chaos. The attempt to secure it is also in chaos. One of the proposals in the current legislative effort is aid Ukraine. If the Senate border bill fails, and Kiev is unable to get further support from the United States, that could offer Russia an opportunity to finish the conflict outright.


This time in February, in theater, the ground is frozen. Solid and compact, the ground is ideal for armor operations. However, within weeks, the rasputitsa, the yearly spring thawing where the rains come and bring mud, which tends to retard mobility. If Russian forces can act decisively and take advantage of the tail end of campaign season and launch a full-on offensive of their own.


For its part, Ukraine has been able to fight the Russian invasion, now all but in its third year, to a stalemate, However, with American aid becoming more problematic, Moscow could take advantage of Kiev's situation and continue to attrit Ukrainian forces in the field. As Ukrainian strength wanes, Russia will be better positioned to get favorable terms.


Now the common argument is that if Russia ultimate victory in Ukraine will then allow Russia to turn west, and in turn threaten what are otherwise NATO countries. That is a possibility. However, such a scenario has to be years in the future and Western nations will have that interval to prepare for "the Russians are coming" eventuality.


It has been the position of these Pages that the Russo-Ukraine War needs to end, with or without an outright winner. If Russia could move now, it could break the logjam and make significant gains, forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table. Russia will retain Ukrainian territory and any idea that Ukraine will be made whole can now be dismissed.


Say that Russia does move and the Senate Border Bill does not pass the House, what does that do for Ukraine ? Ukrainian forces are operating under the same conditions as the Russians but the latter has staying power. It was to be Ukraine support from the Senate that would keep them viable. If Russia can end this, however, it will remove one conflagration from a world that is seeing too many.

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