Means, Modes, & Standard Deviations. . .

(Means, Modes, & Standard Deviations. . .)

For those who remember the nightmare of Statistics, he or she would be familiar with those terms. Statistics are used in politics all the time as well. One thing that gets in the news is the "Real Clear Politics" average of polls. In any campaign, the RCP is used to gauge the polling average between two candidates but there is an increasing margin of error as election day approaches.


Take the average for the Trump Campaign when the former President first announced he was running again. The Real Clear Politics average showed Biden way ahead. However, as time went on, and Trump got on the trail, when he was not in court, and the consensus remained that Trump, while the probable GOP Nominee, could still not defeat Biden. Until, it emerged that he possibly could. The RCP so migrated from Plus Biden to Plus Trump. In the end, Trump's position became so un-assailable, especially in the so-called Swing States. As the writing on the wall became evident, based on the RCP, that President Biden would lose to former President Trump, Biden lost the game of chicken. So, Biden did the only thing he could. He quit. Vice President Harris then took the reins and the Campaign his hers going forward.


Some years ago, Robert Redford starred in a movie called The Candidate. Basically, Redford is the son of a well-known Senator. Then some Party operative recruits him to run for his father's old seat. In the end, Redford wins and, when the results get announced, Redford turns to that operative and asks: "what happens now ?" Kamala Harris is the candidate like Robert Redford. And, according to the Real Clear Politics Average, Harris is tied with Trump in the same states in which Trump was leading Biden.


This is now and is the Honeymoon Period for the Vice President. At this moment, Harris is not well known, at least not being fully vetted and indeed, the media has been running cover for Kamala. That will only last for so long. Harris is a classic California liberal. She has stated positions that are far outside the mainstream. Harris was the mirror image of President Biden but her own ideas are even more extreme is that were possible. Harris was Tsar of the failed border. She was the last in the room when Biden ordered the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Harris opposes fracking and any off-shore oil development. She supports defunding the police as well as Immigration and Enforcement.


Now, if she were to amend some of these positions, a move to a center that is ultimately required of any Presidential candidate, and it remains to be seen if the Vice President is capable of such a pivot. However, if she suddenly supports fracking in Pennsylvania, or the restoration of cash bail and adopts a new view on Israel, that would be more than a standard deviation.

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