Second Time Around

(Second Time Around)

August 9th, 1945 was a bad day for Japan. After a long period of "Neutrality" the Soviet Union declared war on Japan and finally attacked in the Far East two army groups, engaging what was left of Japan's Kwangtung Army in Manchuria. It was also on August 9th that the Nagasaki atomic mission was flown. A Boeing B-29 named Bockscar, part of the same 509th Bombardment Group of which the Hiroshima raid and B-29 Enola Gay delivered that payload.


However, whereas the Hiroshima mission was almost flawless in execution, the Nagasaki event was beset with problems. Bockscar had a failed fuel pump, and the attack was also beset by weather. The original target for the second mission was not Nagasaki nut Kokura. Fortunately for that Japanese city, it was completely overcast. The secondary was Nagasaki thought it too was initially cloudy. As Bockscar flew from the IP (initial point) to the AP (aim point) there was sufficient clearing to where the city was revealed, and the bomb was released. Unlike the "Gun-Type" bomb that was used at Hiroshima, with a yield of some 15 kilotons. The weapon released over Nagasaki was an "implosion device," known as "Fat Man" with a yield of 21 kilotons. The same yield as the Trinity test in New Mexico the previous July.


So, August 9th and the destruction of Nagasaki but the point is that second mission was a flawed affair. When the Saturn V tests were conducted, Apollo 4 launched in November 1967 had a textbook flight. Apollo 6 experienced certain vibrations and almost did not reach orbit. So, there are three, comparatively speaking, flawed events. The first was the atomic raid on Nagasaki. The second were the problems experienced by Apollo 6. The third is obviously the changeout of President Biden for Vice President Harris.


To date, Harris has had the longest media fueled honeymoon since the switch from Biden was made. But while polling might not reflect the reality, the Real Clear Politics average shows Harris and Trump tied or Harris even up minimally. Harris had the chance to broaden her appeal and move to the Center and truly be a foil to the former President. Instead, Harris settled on Governor Tim Walz which would have the effect of securing the left flank but would not make a play for independents.


Both Trump and Harris are in a minefield and with just months to go it will be incumbent on them to navigate a way through. For his part, Trump maintains the lead in the Electoral College polls. 251 to Harris' 241. Therefore, Trump has the easier path to 270. But will he get there ? Or will Harris chart her own path ?


The race has been radically transformed. But the option to put Harris at the head of the ticket might render a temporary surge for the Vice President but surges dissipate over time. Sometimes, in the second time around, success is not always repeated.

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