When A Stranger Calls. . .

(When A Stranger Calls. . .)

Have you checked the children ? That is a line from the 1979 thriller When a Stranger Calls. Basically, a babysitter (Carol Kane) gets a phone call asking if she had "checked the children." The call is repeated several times until she is told by police that the caller is inside the house. Kane runs out and into police officer Charles Durning. Sadly, the children were murdered.


When any pollster calls, it is like "when a stranger calls." Who actually answers the phone ? Would they lean Democrat or Republican ? Does that affect polling averages ? At this stage of the Campaign, can these numbers be trusted ? Whenever a Party is losing, and polling is reflecting that fact, some take solace in the fact  that they never got a phone call. Grasping at straws.


Right now, Vice President Harris is leading in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Trump is maintaining position in North Carolina. At least that is what current polling is suggesting. But is it accurate ? It has been said that Trump is consistently under-polled by as many as several points. The reality will not be known till Election Day and even then, not until all the votes get counted.


Any samples taken at this stage of the race will be working with an increasing margin of error. Day to day snapshots showing varying levels of support for either candidate. However, remember Trump's lead over President Biden after the GOP Convention or Harris' lead after her coronation ? Which is a better reflection of how things will develop in November ?


That being said, national polls and state polls are one thing. Demographic polls are another. In these surveys, Trump is making in-roads among African Americans, Hispanics. white males but has lost women to Harris by a wide interval as well the so-called Gen-Z voters. However, this is a classic case of needing to look under the hood. All these head-line numbers require a broader context. Like Harris ahead but. Trump is leading here but. With the Campaign at this stage, one need ask only one question. . .


Have you checked the children ?

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