Making It Count. . .

(Making It Count. . .)

Come full circle ? It was on October 7th. 2023 that Hamas terrorists surged into Southern Israel, committed 1,200 murders in brutal fashion and captured over a hundred hostages. In the year since, Israel has waged a double campaign against Hamas in Gaza and now against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon which is including a ground incursion. An Israeli strike against Iran is imminent. What target list being prepared in Jerusalem cannot be half measures or symbolic in nature.

Iran has assets than can be destroyed namely its nuclear and petroleum-related assets. It also goes without saying that Iranian air bases and port facilities could be struck. The question would be range and capability. Israel has drones as did Iran. Or could the response be more subtle, further assassinations of Iranian leadership if the intelligence is accurate. The only indication as what shape the Israeli attack might take, according to the Israeli Defense Minister, "all options are on the table."

Narrowing it down. But whatever Israel decides, it will be without any counsel from the Biden Administration who have sought to frustrate Israel's since Day One. Desperate to avoid a regional conflict, the Biden action has resulted in exactly that. What will happen if the Iran strike is sufficiently severe as to invite another retaliation ?

That is the reason why an Israeli attack on Iran must be decisive. The ability of the Islamic Republic to counter effectively will need to be degraded.  In both the Six Day and Yom Kippur wars, Israel was able to secure aerial superiority in short order and that will have to be the case here. Or, 2024 will be completely different from either 1967 or 1973.

In the, when the history of the last year is finally compiled. the ones who began this conflict will be the ones who will have lost it. Hamas, Hezbollah, and now Iran will face its own "reckoning." Like Russia invading Ukraine, thinking it would be mere hour affair, that has turned into a two-year slaughter, When China finally invades Taiwan, how easy is that war is supposed to be ?

It was miscalculation for all parties involved. Israel mis-calculated in failing to anticipate the initial Hamas attack. But Hamas could not predict the Israel invasion of Gaza that advanced all the way to the Egyptian border, killing hundreds of Hamas fighters, destroying terrorist infrastructure. Then the campaign shifted north against Hezbollah and its own assets. No one knew how far Israel would go in meeting these threats. When the attack on Iran martializes, one will have the answer.