Negotiated Settlements. . .

(Negotiated Settlements. . .)

Tomorrow, dozens if not hundreds of conflicts will erupt. Sides will be drawn. No quarter can be given, unless it is a piece of pie. Battlelines will be defined with two irreconcilable factions: those who voted for Trump and those who voted for the other one (what was her name ?) Providing there is no food fight, one go to watch the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade and then some football. Yes, tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day and look for the open warfare to take place as described.


That being said, one place that will not be as violent as a Thanksgiving Day dinner is the cease fire that was negotiated between Israel and the Lebanon-bases terror group Hezbollah. In a period of about sixty days, the Isreal Defense Force will withdraw from positions in Lebanon and allow the standing Lebanese Army to take post along the border. Hezbollah will withdraw to the interior. In the south Hamas remains in Gaza and still has some one hundred hostages and where fighting still continues.


It is a matter of time when the Gaza issue gets resolved because, after the Election of Donald Trump, altered the strategic landscape in the region. Israel decimated both Hezbollah and Hamas, but it is Iran that is faced with the new environment. That is why Tehran is largely in support of the Hezbollah deal (at least in private) and is treading carefully in order not to provoke the new Trump Administration.


Iran was already under sanction in the last Trump Administration and will likely place sanctions again unless the Islamic Republic commits to certain behavior modifications. Iran will no longer be allowed to pursue nuclear weapons' technology. It will have to sever support to both Hamas and Hezbollah. It will be able to perhaps sell oil but at reduced price per barrel. It will not be able to sell to China.


Regardless, one match in this conflagration has been extinguished. The truce is only for the moment, sixty days, its conclusion after Trump takes Office. At that point, one will see if the truce holds or the conflict re-generates. Time will tell. It always has.

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