Rasputitsa. . .

It is still very cold in Russia. The frozen ground in the Ukrainians Theater of operations remain conducive to mobile operations, both Russian and for the Ukraine. In a few weeks, however, the Rasputitsa will set in. That is the yearly thaw where temperatures warm and winter snows become spring rain. With rain comes mud and mud, as any driver who might take an ill-advised trip across a field after a rainstorm could attest, mud renders tanks, trucks and other transport largely immobile.


When the rasputitsa arrives, that could be the opportunity for serious negotiations for ending the Ukraine War. The most recent action was a Russian drone strike. Of the 85 vehicles launched, some 52 had failed. This attack took place after President Putin had his long conversation with President Trump and while kinetic actions continue, the broader parameters of a cease fire are being discussed.


It is clear that both sides need the war to end as the costs of the last three years have become prohibitive. Russia has lost almost million men of military age, Ukraine at least several hundred thousand. Not since the bloodlettings of the World Wars has anything comparable been witnessed.


The spring thaw where things necessarily are paused, is the chance for President some Ukrainian territory will be ceded to Russia but at the same time, Moscow, in lieu of Ukraine not joining NATO, would still need to have European nations stand for Ukraine's defense, jut not under NATO's aegis.


Such a security arrangement is being discussed in Munich. That might recall the disastrous summit in 1938 where British Prime Minister Chamberlain declared "Peace in our time," only months before the outbreak of the Second World War. The situations are also similar but instead of dismembering Czechoslovakia, Ukraine is not going to be immune from any patrician. but how much remains to be seen.


A "solution" acceptable to both sides can be achieved but that will re-quire serious discussions. A chance is coming. Soon, will be the time of the Rasputitsa. 

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