Differing Opinions. . .

(Differing Opinions. . .)

There is a statistician named Allan Litchman from American University that has used a formula that has successfully predicted every President election since 1984. Litchman has thirteen keys to victory and in a nutshell, Vice President Harris has more "keys" and therefore his prediction to gain the White House. Litchman's conclusion is that the Democrats "got smart" by rapidly rallying around Harris in short order and avoided all the elements that could have de-railed what was left of the Biden Campaign.


Litchman's opinion, however, is not isolated. Another statistician, Nate Silver at his 538 Survey has Trump winning the Electoral College and is leading in states in question. This not quantum mechanics, however. Both scenarios cannot be true. There is a reason that statistics, and quantum mechanics for that matter, continue to give people heartburn. That being said, Litchman is relying on his "streak," he is banking that since he has never been wrong in the past. why would he be wrong now ?


All streaks come to an end, however. Will this be the year that Litchman ends his ? Aside from the Collage and the state positions, the external betting market is betting on a Trump victory. That being said, a suggestion of a Harris victory now could be pre-mature. She still has to navigate the debate with Trump and depending on that performance,


This can be a day-to-day phenomenon, however, One up one day before a flip. Harris had been experiencing increased Democrat enthusiasm reflected by Litchman's assessment. Then who at the New York TIMES has Trump up by one ? Enough to make a head explode or at least cause severe heartburn.


Therefore, where the race stands is anybody's guess and no one really has any idea. Not Allan Litchman, not Nate Silver, not the TIMES. There is too much runway remaining for a missed approach. In the end, there can be only one. Like Highlander,

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