Prelude & Prologue

(Prelude & Prologue)

When Ferris Bueller took his "day off," the history teacher, Ben Stein, was giving a lecture on the Smoot Hawley Tariff. It was imposed in 1930, causing the collapse of the international trading system and possibly accelerated the Great Depression. The American economy at the time was contracting as the Roaring 20's came to a crash in the 1929 Wall Street sell-off. The addition of the Tariff only exacerbated the situation and all but guaranteed the election of Franklin Roosevelt. He of course instituted the New Deal that in the end proved less affective in its assigned role. It was only after the American entry into the Second World War that economic growth recovered.


President Trump has been initiated tariffs of his own that as this stage could prove as problematic as Smoot-Hawley. The economy today is still the Biden economy and while Biden-omics is persisting, inflation is still elevated, the trade deficit is at $150 billion and with new Trump tariffs, that will only get worse. However, if this is a "highway to hell," so to speak, how will the American people weather the storm if the effect of the Trump tariffs go into effect, but the is no tax cuts to gather the slack.


Democrat behavior at the Trump speech the other night might have been pathetic and the Caucus might be imploding as ten Democrat Members joined the Republican Conference in the censure of Congressman Al Green. However, the larger problem for Republicans, as it has always been, is the tax cuts and although this record has been broken for some time, if this tax relief is not in place, and these tariffs prove inflationary, people will see a double indemnity as high prices would then be coupled with no tax cuts.


In contrast to the President Trump mantra of "promises made and kept," Congressional Republicans will have broken their promise and by extension, the President's. Assurances have been repeatedly given that progress on the Legislation is proceeding. The truth is that, the Trump tax extensions remain in the discussion stage and while elements have been passed, like the budget vote from a couple of weeks ago, but what is still ahead is the government funding due on the Fourteenth, where Democrats are refusing to support any measure that incorporates DOGE reductions in any fashion.


Tell one the progress from this point ? What degree of confidence will the Republicans have when there is the lift of the Continuing Resolution that has to secure Democrat votes and where conservative Republicans will object and Speaker Johnson will again turn to the Minority Party and the Speaker could again another ouster.


At least that is the nightmare scenario and the best thing the GOP Conference could do is to hold together because, if they don't, the display of Democrats in the House Chamber the other night will only be a foretaste of Minority Republicans in two years.

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